It’s quarter till eleven as I start this.  Right now, the Virginia governor’s race has gone to the Republican candidate, and Chris Christie is ahead in New Jersey against incumbent Jon Corzine.  Right now, as I’m writing, one year after his election, the message to Obama seems to be that the change he’s brought needs to change itself before next year.

These races don’t directly impact policy in Washington, but they suggest two things: first, Obama may still be relatively popular, but he can’t throw his weight around behind his party; and two, there is a very good likelihood of an upswing in Republican momentum going into 2010.

10:53: Corzine has just conceded defeat in New Jersey.  The races there and in Virginia supposedly are a repeated historical trend, wherein the keys to the governor’s mansions go to the opposition party of the White House.  However, a similar loss happened for Democrats in 1993 – a loss that spring-boarded the Gingrich Revolution in Congress one year later.  Having broken the Democratic control of New Jersey and retaking Virginia, the Republicans can ramp up recruitment drives for the next Congressional election against Pelosi and Reid’s grip on the House and Senate respectively, not to mention drawing in new donors and revived support.

There is a lot that can happen in the next year – this is proof of that.  Obama isn’t less popular than when he was elected, it’s just that he cannot move that popularity behind other candidates with any reliability.  However, this puts him on the defensive, and likely is going to have an influence on Blue Dog Democrats ahead of any vote of health care.  They know that there are still strong conservative movements in their states, and this reminds them that these movements can change the game in a heartbeat.  Knowing this, these swing votes in the House could cut off support for any bill they deem “too liberal” for their constituents.  This also means that two new potential contenders for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2016 (if they don’t try and “pull a Palin” with a 2012 run), something no Democrat wants to consider (particularly with Virginia, a newly-made swing state, and a supposed Democratic sanctuary in Jersey, electoral votes they could easily need in each case).

This may mean nothing at all, but it could mean everything.  Keep your eyes on these two new governors in the months to come.  It could all change in a New Yor- er, New Jersey minute.